Actual Doses Distributed & Administered
This visualization shows actual vaccine doses distribution and administration progress to-date. The percent of vaccines distributed that are administered is important gauge of how well provinces are performing at getting doses into arms.
Actual vs Forecast Dose Distribution
The Government of Canada (GoC) has been releasing detailed vaccine dose distribution schedules only a month or two in advance because manufacturers are not able to provide such detailed delivery certainty. However, Canada's vaccine contracts appear to hold manufacturer's only to quarterly delivery targets. So other than the near-term detailed delivery schedules, GoC only provides quarterly vaccine dose target numbers.
For the purposes of this model and forecast weekly and quarterly targets are calculated as daily amounts spread across the period of time they are targeted to arrive in Canada.
Note that "distribution" and "delivery" are used synonymously here. In practice both mean that vaccines are in Canada and available to be put into arms.
"Delivery" refers to dose delivery from manufacturers to GoC, although it's estimate is used here to compare to actual doses distributed from GoC to provinces and territories.
"Distribution" refers to doses distributed from GoC to provinces and territories and is used here to compare to actual doses administered.
There will likely some lag between time vaccines are delivered to GoC and distribution to provinces and territories. Hoowever, in practice GoC has been distributing vaccines as soon as they are delivered eg no federal GoC stockpiling of vaccines. Stockpiling is done by provinces.
Actual vs Remaining Dose Administration
Population x 2 is used because dose administration reporting records single doses but two doses are required for full vaccination using the available Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. This would be updated if and when single dose vaccines become available.
% of Target Population Doses Administered is defined as: ((Doses Administered To-Date / (Age 16+ Popluation x 2)) x 100. This is probably the best metric to gauge overall performance of vaccination program as each person requires 2 doses.